CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-01-04T18:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-01-04T18:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/36254/-1
CME Note: Fast partial halo seen generally to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 quickly leaving the SOHO C2 field of view, seemingly associated with an eruption from near the vicinity of Active Region 3939 (S17W58) and associated long duration C7.6-class flare. Quickly moving field lines off the west limb and bright post eruptive arcades are observed in GOES SUVI 284/304. Associated with solar energetic particle events at SOHO, GOES, and STEREO A. | ARRIVAL NOTE: A very weak arrival/glancing blow signature detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1, mainly characterized by an increase in solar wind speed from ~500 km/s to 630 km/s, accompanied by a slight increase in B-total and temperature, as well as an initial very slight increase in density followed by a minor drop in density. The B-field components at first display rapid fluctuation and corresponding slight increase in density to about 4.5cc, possibly indicating a small pileup, followed by a minor decrease in density to about 2cc and notably smoother rotation in the B-field components starting after 2025-01-07T12:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-01-07T04:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-01-06T17:00Z
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:
Please enter the following information for your prediction: SWPC ENLIL settings: ENLIL version: 2.9e Resolution: medium Ambient settings: a8b1 Ejecta settings: d4t1x1 WSA version: 2.2 GONG: mrbqs CME input parameters Time at 21.5Rs boundary: Radial velocity (km/s): Longitude (deg): Latitude (deg): Half-angular width (deg): Notes: Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2025 Jan 06 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... ... No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. However, a fast CME originating from AR 3939 on 04 Jan was modeled and determined to be a glancing blow at Earth by late on 06 Jan with the bulk of the material being well ahead of Earth's orbit. ...Lead Time: 35.18 hour(s)
Difference: 11.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2025-01-05T16:49Z
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